《中国海外投资国家风险评级报告（2022）》
中国社会科学院国家全球战略智库国家风险评级项目组
中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室_ 著
中国社会科学出版社，2022年5月
摘要：2020年中国对外直接投资的流量和存量分别位居全球第一位和第三位，中国在全球外国直接投资领域中的影响力持续扩大。然而当前新冠肺炎病毒不断变异，新冠肺炎疫苗接种严重失衡，美国货币政策转向引发金融市场动荡，部分发展中国家债务负担飙升，全球供应链存在定向脱钩风险，全球经济增长势头依然存在诸多变数。在百年未有之大变局和新冠肺炎疫情叠加的背景下，全球范围内投资环境风险值得警惕。本报告从中国企业和主权财富的海外投资视角出发，构建了包含经济基础、偿债能力、社会弹性、政治风险和对华关系五大指标共42个子指标的评价体系。报告涵盖114个国家和地区，全面和量化评估了中国企业海外投资所面临的主要风险。《中国海外投资国家风险评级报告（2022）》在样本范围选取、评级指标和评级方法上均延续了2021年的标准，与往年的评级结果形成了良好的可比性。从总体评级结果来看，发达经济体的经济基础较好，政治风险较低，社会弹性较高，偿债能力较强，整体投资风险低于新兴经济体。虽然中国对发达经济体的直接投资近期出现明显反弹，但考虑到发达经济体的对华关系得分低于新兴经济体，并维持在较低水平。潜在风险依然存在。对新兴经济体而言，虽然其经济基础和政治风险得分与发达国家的差距依然比较明显，但是长期来看，随着新兴经济体尤其是RCEP区域内部投资需求的上升，其仍将是中国海外投资最具潜力的目的地。目前，共建“一带一路”合作地区已经成为中国对外直接投资新的增长点。最后仍需强调的是，2022年海外投资风险仍需要引起投资者的警惕。
关键词：海外投资；国家风险评级；“一带一路”；RCEP；新冠肺炎疫情
Abstract: In 2020,China's outward FDI flows and stocks ranked first and third place in the world, respectively. China's influence in the field of foreign direct investment continued to expand. However, at present, the new crown pneumonia virus is constantly mutating, the vaccination is seriously imbalanced among different countries, the shift in US monetary policy, the debt burden of some developing countries, there is still a risk of targeted decoupling in the global supply chain, as above there are still many variables in the momentum of global economic growth. The world is undergoing the greatest changes in a century, and suffering the epidemic, the risk of the global investment environment is worth vigilance. From the perspective of overseas investment of Chinese enterprises and sovereign wealth, this report constructs an evaluation system with a total of 42 sub-indicators including five major indicators: Economic Foundation, Solvency, Social Resilience, Political Risk and Relations with China. Covering 114 countries and regions, this report provides a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the main risks faced by Chinese companies. Report of Country Risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2022) continues last year's standards in terms of sample range selection rating indicators and rat ing methods, and achieves good comparability with the rating results of previous years. Judging from the overall rating results the Economic Foundation of developed economies is better than the developing countries' , the Political Risk is lower, the Social Resilience is higher, the Solvency is stronger, and the overall investment risk is lower than that of emerging economies. China's direct investment in advanced economies has rebounded markedly recently, however, when consider tha the score of Relations with China are lower than that ofdeveloping counties, potential risks still remain. For emerging economies, although the gap between their Economic Foundation and Political Risk score and that of developed countries are still relatively obvious, in the long run, with the rising investment demand of emerging economies, especially in the RCEP region, it will still be the most potential destination for Chinese overseas investment. At present,the“Belt and Road”region has become a new growth point for China's outward direct investment. Finally, it still needs to be emphasized that the risks of overseas investment in 2022 still need to arouse the vigilance of investors.
Key Words: Overseas Investment，Country Risk Rating,“Belt and Road”, RCEP, COVID-19
目 录
2022年中国海外投资国家风险评级主报告 CROIC-IWEP
一 评级背景
二 各评级机构评级方法综述
(一) 发布国家信用评级的机构简介
(二)评级对象
(三) 评级指标体系
(四) 评级方法特点
三 CROIC-IWEP 国家风险评级方法
(一) 指标选取
(二) 标准化、加权与分级
(三) 评级样本
(四) 本评级方法的特点
(五) 未来规划
四 CROIC-IWEP 国家风险评级结果总体分析
(一) 总体结果分析
(二) 分项指标分析
五 CROIC-IWEP国家风险评级主要排名变动国家分析
(一) 南非(↑20)
(二) 赞比亚(↑16)
(三) 埃塞俄比亚(↑13)
(四) 沙特阿拉伯(↑12)
(五) 俄罗斯(↑10)
(六) 巴基斯坦(↑10)
(七) 缅甸(↓19)
(八) 老挝(↓15)
(九) 德国(↓9)
(十) 柬埔寨(↓8)
2022年中国海外投资共建“一带一路”合作国家风险评级子报告
一 共建“一带一路”合作国家风险评级背景
二 共建“一带一路”合作国家风险评级样本
三 共建“一带一路”合作国家风险评级结果
(一) 总体结果分析
(二) 分项指标分析
2022年中国海外投资RCEP成员国风险评级子报告
一 中国在RCEP国家的投资情况
二 RCEP成员国评级结果分析
三 总体得分分析
附录 CROIC-IWEP 国家风险评级原始指标