中国将成为2023年全球增长的最大单一贡献者
编者按：2023年2月16日，由国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华代表处和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所共同主办的世界经济形势报告会在京举行。与会专家学者结合IMF最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》，就世界和地区经济展望等话题进行了深入探讨，指出2023年中国将贡献全球增长的三分之一左右，成为最大的单一贡献者；中国的增长将对其他经济体产生积极的增长溢出效应；消费将成为今年中国经济增长的主要动力。与会专家表示，尽管当前世界经济正在进入复苏轨道，但仍存在诸多不确定性，需要加强全球经济治理合作。
以下摘选两篇相关报道：
《人民日报》：世界经济形势报告会在京举行
本报北京2月16日电 （记者韩晓明）由国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华代表处和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所共同主办的世界经济形势报告会16日在京举行。与会专家学者就世界和地区经济展望等话题分享了观点，认为当前世界经济正在进入复苏轨道，但仍存在诸多不确定性，需要国际社会共同努力，坚持多边主义、坚持自由贸易，加强全球经济治理合作。
IMF驻华首席代表史蒂文·巴奈特在会上表示，中国经济的强劲增长将带来巨大溢出效应，中国将成为推动2023年世界经济增长的重要动力。IMF不久前发布了《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，大幅上调今年中国经济增长预期，认为中国优化调整防疫政策等因素将改善中国和全球经济增长前景。
China Daily， “China to contribute around 1/3 of growth”
China will likely become the largest contributor to global growth in 2023 as the nation expects its consumption-led rebound to help boost economic activity in other economies, according to an official at the International Monetary Fund.
Steven Barnett, IMF's senior resident representative in China, said the fund expects China to contribute about one-third of global growth this year, making the country the single largest contributor.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update in January, global economic output is forecast to expand by 2.9 percent this year, for which China is expected to contribute about 1 percentage point, Barnett said.
China's growth rebound also has a positive growth spillover on other economies, he said, adding that faster growth in China can lift growth in other economies as the country buys more goods from elsewhere while Chinese tourists travel overseas.
The latest update revised up China's economic growth forecast for 2023 by 0.8 percentage point to 5.2 percent as the country optimized its COVID-19 containment.
"We don't think that China's rebound will drive global inflation," Barnett said. "We do not expect inflation in China to pick up that much."
China's economic rebound this year is likely to be driven more by consumption than infrastructure, which means that the spillover effect on commodity prices will be less than previous recoveries, he said.
Growth in China's consumer price index, a key indicator of inflation, remained mild at 2.1 percent year-on-year in January, whereas the United States reported CPI growth of 6.4 percent year-on-year for the same period, official data showed.
Barnett made the remarks at a seminar to discuss the global economic situation on Thursday, co-hosted by the IMF's office in China and the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS, agreed that consumption will be a major driver of China's economic growth this year as income growth accelerates while people's willingness to spend recovers.
Another pillar of the economic rebound is likely to be stabilizing real estate development investment, which will facilitate the recovery of related industries and prop up credit expansion throughout society, Zhang said at the seminar.
"But this does not necessarily mean that the economy can easily normalize to the level of full employment," Zhang said. "The biggest challenge facing China's recovery is the lukewarm momentum of private investment — a key determinant of the growth in employment, income and consumption."
There remains room for reducing interest rates to spur investment, reduce household costs and ease the government's ability to service debt, he said, adding that more financial support for real estate developers and mortgages remaining necessary.
Li Xin, IMF's deputy resident representative in China, also underlined the need for the country to alleviate financial stress facing some real estate developers, while suggesting further measures to boost vaccination rates and deepen structural reforms.
（By Zhou Lanxu）